Since I read about the Lindy Effect in Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile in 2012 it stuck as a mindworm. After steeping in the tech word for years, Lindy was counterintuitive. Then it made a lot of sense but I started thinking about the forces/drivers behind it.

Some thoughts about those causes:

1. Priorities of Survival & Evolution
Fire meant protection from predators & a better diet. Fire came before the Segway and Fire will outlive it.BBQs will outlive molecular gastronomy. - Red lipstick serves an evolutionary purpose, came before Berets, and will outlive Berets.

2. Scale: The Simple outlives the Complex:

- Microbes outlive ants, ants outlive mammals. - A 1965 Defender will be functional long after the first Model S is irreparable. - A Nokia 3310 outlives the first iPhones. - Fingerprints replaced by signatures, but replace them again.

3. Over-optimization causing fragility
- Optimization on cost ends up removing redundancy. Optimization on aesthetics ends up overlooking the original function.

4. Network effects:
In the adoption Curve, the mass is on the right. Once a product crosses the chasm it is more likely to gain network effects that will allow it to survive longer AND ward off competition from superior products that come later. Positive feedback loops.

5. Viral factor: R0≥1
Example: Chinese Acupuncture is Lindy: My friend is referred to acupuncture for a pain in his arm. It helps. He told a few of us about it and 3 of us tried it out. It worked out for 1 of the 3. That person now recommends it to more people and so on.